Back to school: Summer election recap
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The summer of 2024 threw the political world into chaos; as if American politics weren’t already enough of a circus.
President Joe Biden finally took a hint and bowed out of the race, clearing the way for Kamala Harris to represent the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, despite being knee-deep in legal trouble and dodging bullets — literally — somehow managed to stay in the game. As the country gears up for a showdown between these two, the political landscape is more divided than ever, with people hosting watch parties and posting memes about debates that promise to be more entertaining than informative.
In June, the political landscape shifted dramatically as Biden, already facing growing concerns about his age and ability to lead, faltered during a highly anticipated debate against Donald Trump in late June. His performance, marked by pauses and stumbles, left even his most loyal supporters questioning whether he could continue as a viable candidate.
By mid-July, Biden made the unprecedented decision to step down, a move that sent shockwaves through the political world and set the stage for a significant shift in the Democratic campaign.
Vice President Kamala Harris quickly emerged as the new face of the Democratic Party. Her campaign, already primed for action, gained momentum as she leaned into her background as a prosecutor. Harris’s candidacy marked a historic moment, making her the first Black woman to secure the presidential nomination for a major party. With Minnesota Governor Tim Walz by her side as her running mate, Harris aimed to strengthen her appeal to voters in key Midwestern states.
According to Hannah Ridge, Ph.D., assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Chapman University, President Biden's decision to step down mid-campaign "has improved the Democrats’ chances in 2024," Ridge explained. "Harris has gained some ground in the polls. However, if she does not distinguish herself from Biden, the simple substitution may not be enough to recover."
On the Republican side, Trump’s summer was marked by legal victories and dramatic moments. Despite being embroiled in multiple criminal cases, the former president secured a major win when the Supreme Court ruled in his favor, granting him broad immunity for actions taken while in office. However, the most shocking moment for Trump came on July 13, when an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania nearly ended in tragedy. A bullet grazed Trump’s ear, and the incident became a defining moment in his campaign, allowing him to present himself as a survivor and rally his supporters around his resilience.
"Normally we would expect a short-term bump from an assassination attempt, but it would not necessarily reshape a race, especially several weeks from the election,” Ridge told The Panther. “The legal issues pertain more directly to Trump as a candidate, but they are ‘priced in’ at this point. It’s not new information. If the voters care, they have already taken it into consideration."
On September 15, 2024, a second assassination attempt targeted Donald Trump at his West Palm Beach golf club in Florida. The suspect, Ryan Wesley Routh, camped near the course for nearly 12 hours with a rifle before being stopped by a Secret Service agent. Trump was unharmed, but the incident added tension to an already turbulent election season. While the attempt did not result in any injuries, it underscored ongoing concerns about security and political violence in the campaign.
As both the Republican and Democratic National Conventions took place, the candidates for the 2024 election were officially set. The Republican convention was a show of unity for Trump, with speeches from figures like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis framing him as a defender of American values. Trump’s choice of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate further underscored the GOP’s focus on the Midwest, with Vance’s Midwestern roots seen as key to winning over swing state voters.
The Democratic convention, meanwhile, focused on building unity within the party and energizing its base. High-profile appearances from former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama, as well as former President Bill Clinton and former First Lady Hillary Clinton, emphasized the party’s commitment to diversity and progress. Issues such as racial justice and reproductive rights were front and center, positioning Harris as a leader who could push for a more inclusive future. However, despite the convention’s optimistic tone, the race remained tight, with polls showing only a slim margin separating Harris and Trump.
With both candidates offering starkly different visions for the future, voter turnout becomes crucial in determining the final outcome.
“Voter turnout is the most important component. In a polarized environment, when candidates don’t think they can pick off the other side’s supporters, the turnout on either side and among the independents is what really determines the outcome,” Ridge explained.
With only weeks left before Election Day, the political tension continues to build. The events of this unprecedented summer have set the stage for a historic election, one that will likely shape the political narrative for years to come. As the nation braces for the final stretch of the campaign, all eyes are on the candidates as they head into the home stretch.