Analysis | A look at possible Republican candidates for the 2024 presidential election

Entering the year before presidential elections begin, Republicans are weighing their possible options for candidacy. Photos courtesy of Wikicommons, photo collage by RENEE ELEFANTE, Editor-in-Chief

Now that Mike Pence has officially dropped out of the Trump-dominated Republican race for the 2024 election, Republicans are exploring all of the possible options for candidacy in their party. 

Donald Trump has been triumphing over Joe Biden in several state’s polls by up to 10%, regardless of his high-profile legal cases and controversies. In fact, polling from after his indictments were given shows that he may even be benefitting from the scandals. But, while he seems to be the most popular candidate among Republicans, and the likely choice for the ballot, there are still conservatives who feel that Trump is not a suitable option for the presidency.

During his visit to Chapman in October, renowned presidential historian Douglas Brinkley discussed the possible options for the next presidential election. When asked about Trump’s chances, Brinkley replied that he “never would’ve thought Trump survived Jan. 6.” 

“(Trump) is beyond the proverbial favorite. There’s nobody even getting close to him in the Republican nomination,” Brinkley said.

A poll done by the New York Times has found that Trump is leading over Biden in five of six key swing states. 

But, Trump may have some solid competition in his own party.

Some members of the Republican party have been trying to seek a promising alternative given Trump’s recent controversies. 

Possible alternative options to Trump are former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, as well as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

Senior political science and philosophy double major Ethan Oppenheim, who is also a member of Chapman Republicans, explained why he would favor DeSantis and Haley over Trump.

“I think DeSantis has been very good in speaking out in support of Israel,” Oppenheim said. “I think in general, he’s been pretty good with the economy, keeping taxes low (and) keeping the market liberated from excessive regulations.” 

But when it comes to who he would vote for on the Republican ballot, Oppenheim is leaning more towards Haley.

“As of right now, my top choice would probably be Nikki Haley. She’s another one whose policies I really like,” Oppenheim said. “I think her foreign policy is on point. I think she’s a traditional, conventional conservative, which is exactly what I want. I think she has good values and is well-intentioned.”

Oppenheim also explained why he wouldn’t be voting for Trump if he’s the Republican nominee. 

“If Donald Trump’s the nominee, which he probably will be, I’m actually not going to vote for him,” Oppenheim said. “I voted for him in 2020 because I didn’t think he was a horrible president, and I thought he would be a good alternative to Biden. But, since he lost the election in 2020, I think he’s gone absolutely off the rails.”

However, this doesn’t seem to be the popular consensus among Republican voters. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump maintains a substantial lead in the polls with over half of the votes, compared to second-leading candidate DeSantis, who has 14%. 

Oppenheim further explained why he thinks many Republicans are leaning towards Trump for the 2024 presidential election. 

“(A large majority of) the voting base believes that the system is inherently rigged against us, us being Conservatives,” Oppenheim said. “They see all of the criminal indictments against Trump as evidence that they’re trying to remove the figurehead of the party and suppress our voices.” 

Oppenheim clarified that while he doesn’t see the situation this way, many of his Republican friends have shared this same sentiment.

“Despite my hatred for Trump, and my skepticism of reelecting him just because I don’t think he can be trusted; my viewpoints, my principles, my policy preferences are all very conservative. I want a conservative candidate like Nikki Haley,” he said.

Partially thanks to DeSantis’ battles with Disney World, Nikki Haley has risen in the ranks as a possible alternative to Trump and is considered to be a conservative crowd favorite. 

Haley is an advocate for a 15-week national ban on abortion, substantial government spending cuts and stricter immigration laws. DeSantis promotes similar ideas to Haley’s in his campaign. But, recent polls show that she has caught up to him in key states, like Iowa, where she climbed 10 points and now matches DeSantis in the ranks. 

The sudden increased support for Haley could be due to Pence dropping out of the running or an influx of right-leaning Independent voters looking to support her rather than Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the race.

While Haley and DeSantis campaign for the second place spot, Trump still has the majority lead. 

Other candidates are also running; Ballotpedia lists businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, entrepreneur and political commentator Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson.

Tim Scott, former South Carolina Senator, was also in the running until he withdrew his candidacy Nov. 12. 

“It does seem to be, short of something extraordinary happening, a Trump-Biden rematch,” Brinkley said.