Analysis | OC 2024: Close Races Reflect Changing Political Landscape
Illustration by Yana Samoylova, Staff Illustrator
The 2024 election results in Orange County highlight both the competitive nature of its political landscape and the demographic and ideological shifts, such as the growing influence of younger, diverse populations, particularly Asian-American and Latino communities. Additionally, a gradual shift from traditionally conservative to more progressive priorities, shaping local and national politics.
In the 47th Congressional District, Democrat Dave Min narrowly defeated Republican Scott Baugh, securing 51.4% of the vote to Baugh's 48.6%. This district, which includes areas like Irvine and Huntington Beach, remains a key battleground. The 47th Congressional District is considered a key battleground due to its diverse and evolving demographic composition, with a nearly equal split between Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. The district includes urban, suburban, and coastal areas like Irvine and Huntington Beach, which attract younger, diverse, and progressive populations. At the same time, long-standing Republican strongholds remain influential, creating a competitive electoral landscape.
Additionally, the district's history of close races, including Katie Porter's narrow victories, underscores its significance in determining control of the House of Representatives. With debates on issues like healthcare, climate change, and economic policy resonating differently across its diverse electorate, the 47th district represents broader suburban political trends shaping national elections.
Similarly, the race for the 45th Congressional District was decided by an exceptionally slim margin. Democrat Derek Tran has declared victory over incumbent Republican Michelle Steel in California's 45th Congressional District race.
“It’s actually very interesting that this is the election that Democrats were able to unseat Michelle Steel,” Saam Seddigh, a junior political science major, told The Panther.
On Nov. 26, Tran expressed gratitude to the community and volunteers through a post on X, stating, "Today's count has made it clear: I am the winner of this race thanks to the resilience, spirit, and dedication of our #CA45 community and volunteers."
The latest vote count shows Tran ahead by more than 500 votes. However, the race has not been officially called yet.
“She [Steel] has been a decently strong incumbent in a competitive seat for the last few election cycles,” Seddigh added. “So, I was quite surprised to see that she’s losing this year, despite winning by roughly five points in 2022.”
The rejection of Measure DD in Santa Ana, which proposed granting non-citizens the right to vote in local elections, demonstrates a significant pushback from voters on extending voting rights to non-citizens. With approximately 60% voting against the measure, many voters expressed unease about the potential implications for election integrity and the broader definition of civic participation.
In state politics, incumbent victories in Assembly Districts 72, 73 and 74 suggest stability in representation despite the broader political flux. Republican Diane Dixon retained her seat in District 72. Similarly, Democrat Cottie Petrie-Norris defended her position in District 73. In District 74, Republican Laurie Davies successfully fended off a challenge from Democrat Chris Duncan.
These outcomes reflect the mixed political orientation of Orange County, where local issues such as education, infrastructure and economic development resonate deeply with voters.
Orange County's voter turnout in the 2024 election was reported at 65.1%, reflecting a highly engaged electorate. This rate is notably lower than the 87.24% turnout recorded in the 2020 general election, which was influenced by the presidential race and heightened political engagement. However, it surpasses the 50.80% turnout of the 2022 gubernatorial election, indicating increased participation in this election cycle. These figures suggest that while turnout has decreased from the peak levels of 2020, Orange County continues to demonstrate robust voter engagement compared to other recent election cycles.