Analysis | Underestimated Republican turnout product of polls, cancel culture

Public support for President Donald Trump’s reelection was underrepresented by polling. Orange County Republicans explained why that may be. Unsplash

Imagine a pitch black room where even the floor you’re standing on doesn’t reflect any light. A door appears in front of you, but you don’t have the tools to open it. While you’re awaiting assistance, locked away in an ominous room for an indefinite period of time, someone on the other side of the door opens it and light and warmth floods in. That is, until the next door is locked and the cycle repeats itself.

That’s how Democrats serve their constituents, said Peggy Huang, first vice chair of the Republican Party of Orange County and a Yorba Linda councilmember.

“How do you keep people down? You keep people down by just giving them a, ‘Well, I’ll make you depend on me … because I’m giving it to you free,’” Huang said Oct. 30 of Democratic platforms and policies. “‘Your growth depends on how much I’m willing to give you.’”

Conversely, Huang said the Republican Party promotes providing constituents the skills to access opportunities for themselves. She acknowledged that President Donald Trump’s unconventional mannerisms have “floored” her, but emphasized that Trump allows concrete innovation to expand, while President-elect Joe Biden asserts impractical promises. 

“What’s difficult for this election is they want the Biden personality, but they want the Trump solutions,” Huang said.

Desiring Trump solutions has led over 73.1 million Americans to vote the president into a second term. Although he lost to Biden, both candidates broke the 2008 record for highest ballots cast for a presidential candidate. 

Many are blaming the polls for predicting a comfortable 8% Biden lead in comparison to its 3.7% actuality. The New York Times reported that internal polls tended to portray Republican candidates weaker than they actually were, which may have contributed to Trump pulling back from campaigning in battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin. 

While Huang is not hesitant to express her support for Trump, Justin Buckner, the president of Chapman Republicans, hypothesizes the reason why many are. 

“A lot of Republicans don’t want to share who they’re voting for because of how vocal the Democratic Party is,” Buckner said Nov. 4. “They’re going to get ridiculed … If I’m going to get polled, I’m not going to answer that – and if I do answer it, I’m probably going to lie.”

The Republican Party’s stigmas and contemporary comparison of Trump supporters to Ku Klux Klan members baffles Buckner, who said he doesn’t know a single racist Republican. But Nic Wratten, a senior creative producing major, was frustrated to see Chapman Republican members share a photo to their social media posing with Matt Gaetz, a Republican representative from Florida who is infamous for inviting an alleged Holocaust denier to Trump’s 2018 State of the Union address.

Wratten messaged the student organization about Gaetz and further questioned the group’s thoughts on controversial topics relating to COVID-19’s origin and the Kenosha, Wisconsin, shooting. The message he received back was “bad PR.”

“They significantly underestimate the power of social media and their Instagram might speak to that,” Wratten said. “They have to come to terms with the fact that whatever you say on the internet now lives on forever.”

Nic Wratten, a senior creative producing major, described his interaction with Chapman Republicans as "bad PR." Photo courtesy of Wratten

The photo with Gaetz was prompted by attending an Oct. 24 celebratory event as a thanks for participating in phone banking for local Republican congressional candidates. Buckner said he wasn’t aware of any controversy with Gaetz’s past, and he connected the backlash from the 2018 incident to Chapman Republican’s 2020 photo – signaling his point about cancel culture silencing the voices of Trump supporters.

“If I am with somebody who invited somebody else who at one point in their life said something, that would reflect poorly of us,” he said. “I don’t think that’s fair, regardless of who they are talking about.”

During his first year at Chapman University, Buckner didn’t share his political preferences, opting to keep his beliefs to himself in fear of being ostracized from his peers and colleagues. Concealing support for Trump may be a trend across the United States for Republicans who support the current administration, but don’t wish to be questioned on specific policies.

“I’d rather have people love me for who I am than (hate me) for who I’m not,” he said. “There’s a big majority of Democrats who don’t really want to discuss what the Republicans think … and that can really have a negative impact on discourse throughout communities.”