Analysis | Predicted midterm ‘red wave’ doesn’t come to fruition

Republicans took back the House of Representatives, while Democrats retained the Senate. Additionally, a record of over 300 LGBTQ+ people and the first-ever Generation Z person were elected into Congress. Photos by DANIEL PEARSON, staff photographer

In the weeks leading up to the Nov. 8 election, several outlets reported predictions that based on preliminary polling, the midterms would be in the favor of the Republican Party, causing a “red wave” that would come to Congress. 

This turned out to not be the case, however, as the Democratic Party kept the Senate and lost only 10 seats in the House of Representatives.

“I think the ‘red wave’ theory was mistaken from the outset,” John Compton, a political science professor, wrote in an email to The Panther. “Most respectable polling firms showed that Democrats had a good chance of holding the Senate. In the House, there was a general expectation that the Democrats would lose some seats as the President’s party always does in the midterms. 

“But looking at the polling averages alone, there was little reason to believe that they would suffer huge losses.”

Chapman Young Democrats President Michael Pepito said that the results were “a big win” for Democrats overall.

“It was kind of shocking to see this ‘red wave’ not develop,” said Pepito, a junior double majoring in peace studies and political science. “But how we’re kind of looking at it is, given the Roe v. Wade decision, given the turnout of the youth and the amount of first-time voters and women that are voting, you can see that those kinds of forces counteracted a lot of the narrative being pushed by the right and some people on the left, that there would be a massive killing out there for Democrats.”

Abbey Umali, the president of Chapman Republicans, said that she felt the results were “a little bit disappointing,” since many Republicans were expecting the “red wave” to happen.

“A lot of the people that Trump endorsed did not do very well, and right now, there’s kind of a shift in the Republican Party,” said Umali, a second-year masters student enrolled in the Education Specialist program. “It is interesting that the trend was that his candidates seemed to be the ones that didn’t do well, and so that could be Republicans who maybe aren’t as big of a fan of Trump also trying to shift away from that.”

Umali noted that while she appreciates many of the actions former President Donald Trump has taken, she feels that there are other major and emerging figures in the party who “will continue what he started and take us in a better direction.”

“It’s a little bit hard to see some of the divisive things that have been going on within the party, but I think that probably contributed to us not doing as well,” Umali said.

In Orange County, of the over 1,817,000 voters registered in the county, 53.7% voted this election as of Nov. 19. In the 2014 and 2018 midterm elections, 24.10% and 38.40% of registered voters cast their ballots.

Several Democratic candidates had begun tailoring their campaigns to include protecting abortion rights as one of their main points for voters after Roe v. Wade was overturned back in June 2022. Some critics, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT), have argued that the candidates didn’t address the ongoing inflation or other issues within the economy that have become pressing concerns for voters.

“Undoubtedly, Democrats were hurt a bit by concerns about inflation and the economy, but in the end, I think Republicans were hurt more by the combination of poor candidate quality, concerns about election denialism and possibly the blowback to Roe v. Wade being overturned,” Compton said.

Another reason for the lack of a “red wave” has been attributed to the surge of Generation Z, millennial and independent voters, a majority of whom voted along Democratic Party lines and were no more than 30 years old. This election was also the first time someone from Gen Z was elected into Congress, with Maxwell Frost representing the 10th district in Florida. Additionally, over 340 candidates identifying as LGBTQ+ were elected as governors and Congressmembers out of the over 670 LGBTQ+ candidates listed on the ballots.

“That is certainly inspiring because it just shows that young people in politics are the now, not the future,” said senior business administration major Thomas Greco, who currently serves as the social media manager for Chapman Democrats. “I think that’s a really strong message that shows we’re here to stay, and we’re here to win.

Republicans took control of the House of Representatives by seven seats, ending Democrats’ two-year-long control. Kevin McCarthy, the current House minority leader, won the GOP vote to be nominated as their candidate for Speaker of the House. Nancy Pelosi, who held the position for the past 15 years, announced that she would be stepping down and passed the Democratic nomination to someone else. The Senate, meanwhile, remains with the Democratic Party, but only by a single seat.

Additionally, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) was re-elected, defeating Democratic opponent Charlie Orist. In other states, many candidates backed by former president Donald Trump lost against their Democratic opponents, causing a shift in the Republican Party. In light of this, several Republican figures have begun focusing on DeSantis as a potential candidate in the primaries for the 2024 presidential election.

“Among conservative activists and Republican party leaders, there seems to be a growing hope that DeSantis represents a more competent version of Trump –– someone who will carry on Trump’s ideological legacy, but without the baggage of Trump’s legal problems and other issues,” Compton told The Panther.

Since the discussions surrounding DeSantis began, Trump expressed his views on the matter. Days later on Nov. 15, Trump announced his bid for a third presidential term.

“This campaign will be about issues, vision and success, and we will not stop, we will not quit until we’ve achieved the highest goals and made our country greater than it has ever been before,” Trump said during his announcement.

Umali told The Panther that while some members of the club are still in support of Trump, she doesn’t agree with his statement regarding DeSantis, especially since DeSantis has supported the former president in the past.

“It’s just disappointing to see because I think there’s a lot of bigger issues happening,” Umali said. “I’m really hoping that those of us conservatives who just genuinely care about the issues and want to improve the country can focus on (the issues) and not just on the politics of (them).” 

In California, the voter turnout percentage was 32.7% as of Nov. 17. For the 2018 midterms, the voter turnout percentage was recorded at 64.54%, while the percentage for the 2014 midterms was recorded at 42.20%.

In Orange County, of the over 1,817,000 voters registered in the county, 53.7% voted this election as of Nov. 19. In the 2014 and 2018 midterm elections, 24.10% and 38.40% of registered voters cast their ballots.

According to Compton, midterm elections generally see a lower voter turnout compared to presidential elections, due to the belief among some voters that presidential elections have “more at stake.”

“It also matters a lot who controls Congress, but presidential elections just tend to generate a higher level of media and social media interest, particularly when a controversial figure like Trump is on the ballot,” Compton said.

Greco and Pepito noted that for younger voters, voting isn’t on their list of priorities due to not feeling represented, not feeling like the midterms are important and accusations on both sides surrounding voter suppression. Another factor is that some students have trouble registering, especially if they’re attending college out-of-state. Thus, early voting and voting-by-mail have become popular options for younger voters as they allow for more flexibility.

“They move back during the summer, and they move back (to campus), and once every two years is a national or local or statewide election; they have to renew that entire process, and in between years, people are moving (into) dorms (or) moving off-campus,” Pepito said.

Greco, Pepito and Umali also noted that filling out the ballots takes time, especially for years with longer ballots, due to the amount of research needed.

“I think there’s just less information that is easily available,” Umali said. “It’s not hard to find if you just look for it, but I think people are maybe less likely to do that extra work, and I think there’s a lack of education about what some of the more local positions actually do, like the House and the Senate, the State Senate, the State Assembly and even some of the city and county positions.”