Analysis | The most likely candidates for Harris’ seat

Ro Khanna and Barbara Lee are strong candidates for Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’ open Senate seat, said Justin Levitt, a California politics scholar. WikiCommons

Whether it be a state littered with COVID-19 cases, an unprecedented number of wildfires or an ever-increasing homelessness problem, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has had himself quite a busy year. 

Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’ empty Senate seat needs to be filled, which only adds more to Newsom’s plate.

The governor will have sole say in choosing Harris’ replacement given her ascension to the vice presidency, but he has not yet laid out a timetable for which to make that decision. As reported by The Associated Press, Newsom told reporters he wants to make sure the process is “inclusive.” 

Justin Levitt, a political science professor and California politics scholar at California State University, Long Beach, noted that Newsom will likely consider diversity an important factor in filling Harris’ seat, given she is a Black and South Asian politician. Yet there’s plenty of other factors for him to consider, Levitt said, including whether to elect someone more familiar from Newsom’s political background in the San Francisco Bay Area or achieve more intrastate balance by selecting a candidate from Southern California. 

Based on Levitt’s commentary and consideration of those factors, here are California’s likely contenders for Harris’ seat. 

Strong Candidates

Ro Khanna, 17th District U.S. Representative

Khanna checks all the boxes Newsom would be looking for. He’s young, dynamic, South Asian American and comes from a Silicon Valley background that is similar to Newsom’s political origins, Levitt said. 

Barbara Lee, 13th District U.S. Representative

If Newsom was to choose a candidate for solely the two years prior to the 2022 Senate election, Lee, 74, would be “a very strong nominee for that,” Levitt said. A longtime champion of racial and LGBTQIA+ issues, Newsom may see her as a comfortable choice, given her status as a congresswoman from the San Francisco Bay Area. 

Dark Horses

Todd Gloria, Mayor of San Diego

Gloria isn’t a name frequently targeted in news media discussion of Harris’ seat, but Levitt believes him to be a possible contender. Despite making some “political enemies,” Levitt said, Gloria overcame numerous controversies and backlash from those even within his own party during a successful mayoral campaign, something that would indicate he has a strong base of support. 

Xavier Becerra, California Attorney General

Becerra is a name that could “make the short list” as a prominent, established Latino politician with a track record of winning elections, Levitt said. The California attorney general has served 12 terms in Congress, focusing on combating issues like immigration. However, Levitt asserted that Becerra and Newsom don’t “share much of a political base within the Democratic Party.” 

Alex Padilla, California Secretary of State

Levitt told The Panther he would give Padilla, also a Latino politician, approximately the same chance as Becerra for the seat. However, Padilla may be hurt in his candidacy because he’s not in the most publicly visible position as secretary of state, Levitt said. 

Outside Shot

Katie Porter, 45th District U.S. Representative

Porter is a hot name in the Democratic Party and is drawing buzz as Harris’ successor. However, Levitt believes there’s a strong obstacle in the path of a Porter selection. If she was chosen for the Senate, that would open up her House of Representatives seat to a special election, which in the historically conservative 45th District would not be a guaranteed Democrat win. 

“(Newsom’s) not going to risk that,” Levitt said.

Robert Garcia, Mayor of Long Beach

Garcia, Long Beach’s first openly LGBTQIA+ Latino mayor, is another name that has been frequently discussed. However, Levitt believes he’s such a young, prominent figure on the rise that he may be pinned for more national aspirations by the Biden administration, which would make him ineligible for Harris’ Senate seat. 

There are other curveballs Newsom could throw into the mix. Any prominent San Francisco Bay Area political leader is fair game, Levitt said, due to their already-established ties to Newsom. An unlikely candidate would have a better shot of coming from Northern California than from Southern California, despite the wealth of candidates in the latter area. Regardless of who is chosen, their vacancy of their own seat, in turn, will lead to a chain reaction of political turnover within their individual communities.

“You’re going to see a bit of jockeying coming for positions in the next couple of weeks,” Levitt said.