Analysis | The pandemic’s impact on student enrollment

With national declines in graduate enrollment rates, the quantity of admission applications for the coming school year defied Chapman University’s expectation. Graphic by HARRY LADA, Art Director

With a 21.7% decline in the rate of graduating high school students immediately enrolling at a four-year institution this fall in comparison to 2019, it’s no secret that online schooling in the United States isn’t catered to all students’ learning needs. This is especially true when the paradigm shift affects students ranging from kindergarten to a university level. Some claim the byproduct is Zoom fatigue, but the impact of COVID-19 is far greater than the dwindling academic drive of students, as seen through a steep drop in grades and education enrollment rates across the country.

The toll is especially prevalent in high-poverty, predominantly Black and Hispanic communities – a likely reflection of these same communities’ increased exposure to the coronavirus by virtue of dense population, limited economic mobility and the high cost of medical care. Statistically, high school graduates in high-poverty areas dropped in college enrollment by 32.6% – marking a 16.2% margin of discrepancy from the enrollment rates of low-poverty high schools. 

Community colleges, which also serve as a convenient function for low-income students, have also suffered as a result, with the California Community Colleges system stating it expects an average 5% to 7% decline in enrollment across all 116 campuses. It comes as an unexpected twist, therefore, that the California State University system, a composite of 23 public four-year institutions, has actually increased in enrollment applications overall. 

Similarly, Marcela Mejia-Martinez, Chapman University’s assistant vice president of Admission told The Panther in a Dec. 8 email that Chapman is surging beyond expectation in the number of admission applications received for the upcoming 2021-2022 school year, currently trending about 10% ahead of the 8202 total applications received for this current academic year. However, Mejia-Martinez clarified that these numbers will not be finalized until after the Feb.15 transfer application deadline.

In an attempt to accommodate additional student housing while maintaining COVID-19 social distancing restrictions, the university will be reopening 900 single units in the spring semester. This decision, said Mike Pelly, Chapman vice president and dean of Enrollment, is an effort to increase students who choose to live in closer proximity to campus.

“I would say we’ve been pretty lucky, to be honest with you, because we just didn’t know what to expect; this is uncharted territory,” Pelly said. “We’re trying to predict not just if students will persist, but how many students will enroll.”

Pelly conceded that due to a lower enrollment rate from this academic year, the university accepted applicants from its waitlist “for probably the first time in several years.” While he said the freshman retention rate had decreased 5% from last academic year’s 90%, Pelly noted that other hits were less noticeable. For instance, the percentage of undergraduate students eligible to register for classes for the remainder of the academic school year was 83.1% as of Dec. 9, in comparison to last year’s 84.9% at the same time. With the small discrepancy, Pelly remains hopeful students will continue undeterred by the online learning environment. 

That said, Pelly noted there were 79 semester-long deferrals handed out to incoming first-year students this fall and anticipates some students will opt for this route again come spring. This proposed alternative has potentially negative ramifications in regard to the number of future applicants accepted into the university.

“Enrollment is capped at a certain amount, so for every spot we allow a deferral, there is one less freshman who can come in this year’s senior class,” Pelly said.

While the numbers on paper show the university is thriving in contrast to its community college counterparts, the repercussions of relying on students’ individual resources for education and the continued worldwide threat of the pandemic are evident in the silent suffering of both low-income and international students, even on Chapman’s campus. Pelly further estimated that the Dodge College of Film and Media Arts’ graduate program had decreased in enrollment by about 20%, given the school’s tendency to draw in students internationally.

“I’m really worried about disadvantaged students, especially in high school … (and) students who don’t have access to things like equipment, computers, the internet ,” Pelly said. “I’m also really concerned about our international students just because of (limited) access to visas … so they’ve had to put their lives on halt.”