Analysis | Will the 2024 election be a 2020 rematch?
As 2024 begins, along with the countdown to November, citizens are weighing their options while Biden tries to step up his campaign. Photo collage by EMILY PARIS, Photo Editor
With election season just around the corner, Biden and Trump are looking to be the likely candidates for the ballot — again.
President Joe Biden is eager to extend his time in the White House for another term, but even those within his own party aren't as ecstatic about his reelection. According to a poll average by RealClearPolitics, Trump is leading over Biden by almost two points. This leaves Biden and his trusted campaign managers in need of a good strategy to successfully beat his opponent.
Biden’s time in office has come with no shortage of controversy. His age has drawn hesitation from both Democrats and Republicans. Age has played far less of a role in the public’s opinion of Trump, who is only four years younger than his opponent at age 77.
The economy is another area of concern among voters, who are less than content with Biden’s handle on inflation.
Polls from FiveThirtyEight show Biden having a disapproval rate of 56% and an approval rate of only 40%. With these numbers, Biden is coming up with new methods to use in his campaign.
This time around, Biden’s campaign is taking an approach that focuses heavily on Trump’s inability to be president, rather than highlighting Biden’s ability to do so. At a speech given on the eve of the anniversary of the Jan. 6 attacks, Biden called out Trump.
“Whether democracy is still America’s sacred cause is the most urgent question of our time. And it’s what the 2024 election is all about,” Biden said at the Jan. 5 speech. “The choice is clear. Donald Trump’s campaign is about him. Not America, not you.”
Trump responded to Biden’s speech soon after at a campaign event in Iowa, where he claimed that Biden was resorting to “pathetic fearmongering.”
Despite Trump’s ongoing legal issues, the polls are suggesting that his campaign is nearly unaffected, if not aided by the controversies.
Trump’s disapproval rate measures close to Biden’s at roughly 58%, according to FiveThirtyEight. His approval numbers are also similar to his adversary at 39%.
Both candidates face a significantly greater amount of disapproval than the contrary. Similar to the 2020 election, it’s a face-off of who is the most popular out of the unpopular options.
While Biden is banking on voters feeling residual vexation against Trump, the former president has campaign strategies of his own.
Financially, Biden has the money to continue his fight against Trump. Filings from the Federal Election Commission stated that Biden ended last year with about $46 million for his campaign, while Trump had $33 million. This might also be due to the fact that Trump’s political action committees have spent around $50 million on legal fees.
Trump is still determined to take down his biggest competitor, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. Haley has remained determined despite Trump’s lead, but RealClearPolitics has most recently reported her trailing behind the former president in the polls by almost 58 points.
In the Democratic party, Biden leads by over 60 points in the polls. Without any close competition, it seems that Biden and Trump could be going for a second round in this election.
Information on upcoming primaries, which will be March 5 for California, can be found on the U.S. Vote Foundation website.
