As the country begins to gear up for the Nov. 8 midterm elections, Orange County residents are preparing to vote for who they believe should be in control of the House, the Senate and state and local offices.

Since the 2020 elections, the voting base in Orange County has shifted to be much more purple in recent years as the dominant Republican population dwindles in numbers, welcoming changing demographics in the county that account for both an increase for the Democratic party and the Independent party.

“Orange County’s status has definitely changed. It was once safe Republican territory, but it now includes several very competitive congressional districts,” John Compton, a political science professor,told The Panther. “The results in those districts will probably be a good indicator of what is happening nationally on election day. That’s why we are seeing a considerable investment on the part of both parties in Orange County congressional races.”

According to data collected by The Capistrano Dispatch, Orange County used to be known as a Republican stronghold and one of the reddest counties in the nation. However, the tide has recently begun to change due to the increase in the Latinx and Asian-American population in the county and a decline in the white population.

Out of the county’s three million residents, over half identify as either Latinx or Asian-American as of July 2022. These numbers have continued to shift since the 2000s. In recent years, new voters and minority communities have opted to either side with no party preference or the Democratic Party instead of voting as part of the Republican Party.

“Democrats are outnumbering and overtaking the Republicans with the increase beginning most notably in 2016,'' said Fred Smoller, another political science professor. “All elections are important, but the biggest reason this year’s is so important is due to issues like climate change, inflation, rising gas prices, the abortion question and Donald Trump’s continued threat to democracy.”

Smoller advised Orange County residents to vote wisely during the midterms as they could impact election results in the future, most notably the 2024 presidential election.

“If Republicans do well in the midterms, (Trump) could run for presidency again and get the nomination of the party,” Smoller said. “And if Trump happens to run against an unpopular Democratic candidate, then he could end up winning the presidential election altogether.”

According to Compton, the president’s party— which is currently the Democratic Party — always ends up losing a large number of congressional seats in the midterms. The question that varies from year to year is — how many will they lose? 

With the government’s current dynamic and the economic conditions in the U.S., several predictions are being made to support a Republican Party victory. However, Compton doesn’t believe that this will be the case.

“The fact that the Republican party has tied itself so closely to Trump, a figure who alienates many centrist voters, means that the Democrats have at least a fighting chance to hold the Senate,” Compton said. “Democrats also appear to have gained some momentum as a result of the Dobbs decision and the subsequent wave of very restrictive state-level abortion laws, which may also alienate some centrist and independent voters. At the end of the day, I think the Democrats have at least a 50-50 shot of holding the Senate, but they will most likely lose the House.”

Last week, The Panther asked Chapman students in an Instagram poll if they will be voting in the Nov. 8 election. Out of 81 respondents, 70 students stated that they will be casting their vote.

“Especially when living in a very conservative community, as a person of color, it can be hard to go out and vote,” said poll respondent Kari Lien, a junior creative writing and communication studies double major. “I understand that it’s important to vote, and I do, but oftentimes, I know what the outcome is going to be, and it’s never one that’s been hopeful in the past. Seeing that shift in power really shows the work in progress, like my impact does matter.”

Along with the elections happening for the House, the Senate and local city councils, the OC Board of Supervisors are also holding elections for three open seats on the board due to redistricting changes across the county. Incumbents, including Katrina Foley and Doug Chaffee are up for re-election, while the several other candidates running, vie to secure a spot on the board for the first time.

“From working in and having been a student in the county for years, I have noticed the downtick of Republican voters in recent years from what it used to be. It’s always nice to see a change in power,” said Angelique Acuna, an administrative assistant for the Center for Global Education at Chapman. “We have a younger generation voting this year with diverse views due to the growing Chapman and student population in Orange.”

There will be a voting center on campus in Argyros Forum 119 from Nov. 5 to 8, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Chapman students and residents in the county can stop by to register to vote, drop off their mail-in ballot or vote in person. For more information on voting centers in Orange County, visit the Orange County Registrar of Voters website.

“Chapman students certainly have a right to be heard on the city council, but that won't happen until they vote, run for office and are viewed as a force in local politics,” Smoller said. “Especially now that the county holds district elections, students at Chapman should vote and let their voices be heard. They could really help to change the government and make a difference, especially for our local city government here in Orange.”