Experts unpack variants of COVID-19, upcoming vaccines

Chapman faculty experts in science and pharmacy discussed the latest vaccines for COVID-19 and its variants in a Feb. 9 town hall. Graphic by HARRY LADA, Art Director

As misinformation about the COVID-19 pandemic surfaces with each coming day, four professors at Chapman University sat down Feb. 9 to uncover the truth and validate the public’s concerns about multiple vaccines. In the “Ask the Experts Virtual Town Hall,” moderator Thomas Piechota, the university’s vice president for Research, asked four Chapman research professionals about evolving knowledge behind new virus variants and their prospective vaccines. 

Pulling data from Othena, an app developed to provide information on the state-mandated phases of recipients and vaccine appointments, Jeff Goad, chair of the department of pharmacy practice said that 578,726 Orange County residents have registered for the vaccine in Phase 1A. That accounts for about 18% of the county’s population of nearly 3.2 million residents that officials hope to fully vaccinate by July 4. 

“It was originally healthcare workers, but in Orange County, we added people 65 and older (to Phase 1A) and we will be moving into Phase 1B,” Goad said. “In Phase 1B, the three sectors are education and childcare, emergency services and food and agriculture. Those are coming in this tier, but we don’t exactly know when.”

Goad, pulling data from Feb. 2, said 47% of Orange County residents aged 65 and older have been vaccinated, 60% of whom are female. Not only have age and gender been analyzed, but also race; Sixty percent of the vaccinated population identify as white, 26% identify as Asian and 10% identify as Hispanic.

“We are only 12% of the way to vaccinating Orange County’s Hispanic population,” Goad said. “This is probably because Othena only recently came out in Spanish. The next phase (that) California is putting into place soon is a different allocation system, in which 20% will be specifically allocated to Santa Ana and Anaheim — where (a majority of) the Hispanic population is.”

Jennifer Totonchy, an immunology and immunotherapeutics professor, discussed the authorized Moderna and Pfizer vaccines and their efficacy rates during the event, specifically analyzing the apparent increase in public confidence as vaccinations have rolled out over time. She also dissected upcoming vaccines, particularly those being produced by Johnson and Johnson, Novavax and Oxford. However, many Orange County residents continue to express hesitation concerning the safety and credibility of the vaccine.

“If you break down the demographic of the people who are absolutely sure they want to get the vaccine right away and put them in decreasing order, you will see that Black adults who are at very high risk for severe disease are among the most hesitant,” Totonchy said. “(This is) in addition to the 18 to 29-year-olds, who are also among the most hesitant to get the COVID-19 vaccine.”

In an effort to ease the concerns of those populations, Totonchy addressed myths and misconceptions about the vaccine during the town hall. Particularly, experts explained there is not currently enough data to definitively say vaccines prevent transmission of COVID-19. 

Because of the pandemic, it was extremely difficult for companies to study transmission in a clinical trial with over 100,000 people, said Totonchy. The experts agreed that a vaccine with 95% efficacy against symptomatic disease will most likely prevent transmission, but data is the only way to prove this theory.

“The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” Totonchy said. “I would be surprised if the vaccines did not prevent virus transmission.”

One of the most prominent concerns about the vaccines are the possible mutations that could reduce its efficacy. According to Hagop Atamian, a biological sciences professor, there are presently six different variants of the coronavirus — a byproduct of the original Wuhan variant mutating. Soon after followed a variant that emerged in England, which allows for a stronger binding affinity in the body, while strains in Africa, Brazil and Japan infect and spread much faster.

Yet despite the occurring mutations, to help put citizens’ minds at risk, Gennady Verkhivker, a computational biosciences professor, argued that the average mutation rate of COVID-19 remains low and is much lower than other RNA viruses such as influenza.

“The more people we vaccinate — that is the key. We have to realize that (mutation variants) emerge only because of the transmission of the virus,” Verkhivker said. “Once we contain that transmission and get more people vaccinated, those mutation variants will have no place to go. We will be able to return to new normalcy, hopefully, this year.”