For the first time in 127 years, Republicans on the Orange County Board of Supervisors lost grasp of the 2nd District seat. After the March 9 election victory of Costa Mesa Mayor Katrina Foley, Republican representation on the board narrowed from a supermajority to a 3-2 majority.

Foley replaced the former district representative and Republican Michelle Steel, who left the seat vacant after her appointment to Congress during California’s 48th Congressional District general election. Foley’s county election could mark a significant win for the Democratic Party as the Orange County Board of Supervisors is set to redraw their districts this year based on 2020 Census Bureau data. 

“Whoever draws the lines wins the election,” said Fred Smoller, a Chapman University campaign and elections professor. “This is a big deal.”

Foley, the first Democratic woman to hold a seat on the board, ran on policies such as the creation of a COVID-19 distribution plan to help the county achieve herd immunity within 100 days. Her plans also address the homelessness and housing crises and calls for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to reach net-zero by 2035. 

Foley told The Panther that the likelihood of Orange County Board of Supervisors shifting to Democratic control depends on who is running and what issues they prioritize.

“I think my election showed that there are more voters from all parties who believe science matters, and who want a representative who works hard for the people, not just a few well heeled friends,” Foley wrote in an email to The Panther. “They want representatives who will roll up their sleeves, talk to them, listen to them and get to work to solve our community problems.”

At a virtual election night party, Foley expressed immense pride for her accomplishment and said that her supporters raised $500,000 in campaign funds over three months.

“I never have felt the kind of love, camaraderie, togetherness and just inspiration that I have felt in this campaign,” Foley said at the celebratory event. “I really believe that we made something happen here in Orange County with this campaign.”

Foley received 44% of the vote. That considerably surpassed the voter turnout of the other four candidates: Former State Senator John Moorlach, Newport Beach Mayor Pro Tem Kevin Muldoon, Fountain Valley Mayor Michael Vo and Corona del Mar tax attorney Janet Rappaport. 

Moorlach secured the second highest vote at 31% and told Voice of OC that he would have won the election had Muldoon and Vo, who each secured 10% of the vote, instead rallied behind him.

“Two Republicans chose to run, thus possibly causing their party to lose,” Moorlach said.

Smoller told The Panther that Moorlach’s promotion of baseless anti-vaccination conspiracy theories, as well as his denial of climate change, may have pushed voters away from him.

“My survey work showed that people do believe in climate change and believe that (COVID-19) is a very serious problem," Smoller said. "People are changing their views, and we're seeing a shift in the county population.”

According to the Orange County Annual Survey, which was conducted through Chapman University’s Wilkinson College of Arts, Humanities and Sciences by Smoller and Michael Moodian, a lecturer inr the Attallah College of Educational Studies, 79% of respondents felt the threat of climate change is a serious problem. The survey also found 80% of respondents believe the coronavirus is not fully under control in Orange County. 

The Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs and other unions — such as the State Building and Construction Trades Council of California and the Orange County Attorneys Association — spent thousands of dollars on campaign efforts against Moorlach. The deputies’ union alone spent about $240,000 against Moorlach. During his 2006 to 2015 term on the Orange County Board of Supervisors, Moorlach opposed raises and attempted to overturn deputies’ pension increases. 

Additionally, the Orange County Employees Association spent about $198,000 on ads against him.

“John Moorlach’s signature issue is that he believes the pension system is unsustainable, and because he’s gone after it, the (Orange County Deputy Sheriffs’) union hates his guts,” Smoller said. 

Once District 5 representative Lisa Bartlett terms out in 2022, Foley’s appointment potentially opens up a door for Democrats to win the majority of seats on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.