Is it up to Orange County?
Photo by Isabel Torres
While the 2024 elections will determine the next president, there is also a fight for control of Congress. The Orange County congressional races have the ability to tip either way and could significantly impact which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives in 2025.
The 2024 elections will determine the chamber's makeup for the next session. Currently, the Republican party holds the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. In the Senate, the Democratic party holds the majority with 49 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris is the tie-breaking vote.
Orange County will play a key role in determining which party will hold power after the Nov. 5 election.
Congressional elections in the U.S. occur every two years, and all six districts in Orange County are on the ballot right now. But the two races to particularly look out for are California’s 45th and 47th Congressional Districts.
The 45th Congressional District
The district is located in northwestern Orange County. It includes Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, Rossmoor and parts of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton and Yorba Linda. There is a large Asian population in the district, making up 37.1% of the population, and both candidates are catering to the Vietnamese American community.
The incumbent GOP representative, Michelle Steel, is facing Democrat Derek Tran in the Nov. 5 election. According to the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan forecasters group, the 45th Congressional District is a “Republican tossup,” meaning the race is competitive and not leaning towards any particular party.
Steel was first elected in 2020 after serving on the Orange County Board of Supervisors from 2015 to 2020 and the California Board of Education from 2007 to 2015. Her campaign agenda focuses on affordable healthcare, increasing funding for the police, lowering California residents' taxes and standing up to the Chinese Communist Party.
Her approach to healthcare is against government-funded healthcare and prioritizes private insurance. She will oppose any increase in federal taxes and favors State and Local Tax (SALT) and Mortgage Interest Deductions (MID). It aims to counter the influence of communism and China.
Derek Tran is the Democratic nominee for the 45th Congressional District. He is a U.S. Army veteran and consumer rights attorney and has not held prior government positions. He is a second-generation Vietnamese American, who has been using his heritage as part of his campaign by using the colors of the Vietnamese flag and establishing shared values and experiences with the Asian community.
Tran’s campaign agenda focuses on increasing teacher wages, limiting lobbyists' power, expanding Medicare gun laws and standing up to China.
His approach to the economy reflects the middle class and the struggles of his own small business. He plans to cut middle-class families' taxes and establish a livable minimum wage.
The Los Angeles Times endorsed Tran on Sept. 9, 2024.
A key issue the two candidates hold opposing views on is reproductive rights.
Steel has voted against the Ensuring Access to Abortion Act of 2022, the overturning of Roe v. Wade and cosponsored the Life at Conception Act, according to Planned Parenthood. On the other hand, Tran is 100% pro-choice and wants to protect Planned Parenthood funding. Alexis McGill Johnson, the president of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, endorsed Tran in 2024.
As of Oct. 15, 2024, the race is a very tight battle, with Tran polling at 48% while Steel is at 45%, according to FiveThirtyFive, a polling and analysis organization known for its focus on forecasting elections and analyzing political trends.
The 47th Congressional District
The district is located in southern Orange County. It includes Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Irvine and parts of Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods and Laguna Hills. The population is primarily white, making up 52.1% of the population.
Democratic Rep. Katie Porter held the seat for six years after being elected in 2018 but decided to leave Congress after not making it through the primaries for the U.S. Senate open seat.
The two new nominees are GOP representative Scott Baugh and Democratic representative Dave Min who will be fighting to be the one to fill the open seat.
Baugh’s campaign agenda focuses on cutting gas taxes, increasing border security, opposing new taxes, backing law enforcement, supporting legislation banning everyone in Congress from individual stock trading and opposing any new offshore drilling initiatives.
Min’s campaign, on the other hand, focuses on protecting Proposition 1, which codified abortion rights into the California constitution. Additionally, he is focusing on affordable housing, protecting survivors of sex crimes and domestic violence where he has written and sponsored eight DV-related bills into law, advocating for public education and small business relief.
Min is endorsed by Porter, the Los Angeles Times and the California Lodge Fraternal Order of Police.
As of Oct. 18, 2024, the race is very close with Baugh polling at 43% while Min is at 40%, according to FiveThirtyFive.