Orange County to see potential increase in COVID-19 cases

Although COVID-19 cases in Orange County and at Chapman University seemed to be on a downward trend, Chapman’s viral infection specialist Jerika Lam predicts an influx of cases as Southern California enters colder fall and winter months. Graphics by HARRY LADA, Art Director

Chapman University’s COVID-19 cases have increased within residence halls during the past week. The Chapman COVID-19 dashboard reports 18 currently known student cases, which rose from the five cases reported Oct. 30. This comes while Orange County data on the coronavirus seems to be following an upward trend – and Jerika Lam, Chapman’s viral infection specialist, suggests an additional spike will appear in November as California moves into its colder months.

Orange County currently sits in the red “substantial” tier of California’s COVID-19 county watchlist as of Nov. 8, with a seven-day average of six daily positive cases per 100,000 residents. The county also has a 3.6% test positivity rate, which qualifies the county to move to the orange “moderate” tier status. In order for that transition to occur, Orange County must also lower its average positive daily case rate to 3.9 per day. Once this is actualized for at least two consecutive weeks, then Orange County can move to the orange tier and businesses may begin opening more indoor space.

However, Lam explained that while Orange County is moving toward the orange tier, she doesn’t believe the county will make it, after Halloween weekend appears to have brought about an influx of cases.

“The data is trending downward, which is all right, but we can do better,” Lam said. “Some people think they are invincible to the virus … They just aren't seeing the impact beyond their selfish concerns.”

Chapman started mandatory monthly testing this week for all faculty, staff and students who regularly access campus facilities to limit the spread of COVID-19 on Chapman campus and in the surrounding community. All students, staff and faculty with ongoing access to the campus will be retested monthly on a rotating weekly basis moving forward.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases are likely to continue rising with increased testing and interaction on campus now that some in-person classes have resumed. As the weather gets colder and more people gather indoors, Lam predicts an increase in COVID-19 cases across the county during the annual flu season in the fall and winter.

The Panther is tracking the number of active cases the university reports. On Nov. 6, Chapman reported 18 active cases of the coronavirus.

Lam also explained that “COVID-19 fatigue” – the mindset of those who either believe the pandemic is over or do not adhere to social distancing and mask guidelines – also plays a large factor in increasing cases, which in turn lengthens the effects of the coronavirus pandemic nationwide.

“There are people who have the mentality that this (pandemic) won’t kill them because they are young and don't have preexisting conditions, so that gives them a false sense of confidence,” Lam said. “They may not die or get sick, but they may get infected and affect others, which is the concern that I have.”

Although Lam expects an increase in COVID-19 cases soon, she does not believe the increase will be enough to move Orange County’s status back to the purple “widespread” tier. Lam does say, however, if Orange County were to return to the more restrictive tier, it will most likely happen around the new year due to the cold weather pushing people indoors, the holiday season and tourism.

Sylvie Messing, a senior sociology major, expressed concern for rising numbers of COVID-19 cases, especially as Chapman students continue to gather indoors and refuse to wear masks.

“(COVID-19) is still spreading,” Messing said. “People are acting really cavalier about things when it’s just not the time to be doing so … I get that people are restless and want to go out and have fun, but at what cost?”