Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley comes to Chapman, discusses upcoming 2024 election
CNN Presidential Historian Douglas Brinkley (center), who is also a professor at Rice University, suspects that Biden will be selected for the Democratic nomination while former President Donald Trump will presumably get the Republican nomination. Photos courtesy of Carmen Chavez
American presidential historian Douglas Brinkley spoke at Chapman on Oct. 12 about the possible candidates and situations that may arise in the upcoming 2024 election.
Brinkley serves as a professor at Rice University, a CNN Presidential Historian and a contributing editor for Vanity Fair. The writer and historian has been awarded seven honorary doctorates in American Studies and has had seven of his books become New York Times bestsellers. As an expert in presidential history, Brinkley offered his insight to the Chapman community as the keynote speaker of this election-based event. The event was moderated by Professor Lori Cox Han and Professor Luke Nichter.
Starting off with a focus on incumbent President Joe Biden, Brinkley talked about his chances at success in a re-election.
“The good news for Joe Biden is he has no competition for the Democratic nomination,” Brinkley said.
While Brinkley suspects that Biden will be selected for the Democratic nomination, he did note that the public’s perception of the president has been taking a dip during his term. This could be due to high gas prices, inflation, an increase in illegal border crossings and the continuing aid being sent to Ukraine — which some Americans aren’t happy with.
“Most of the people in (his) party wish (he) wasn’t running,” Brinkley said. “So, this is a conundrum that Biden’s going to have to figure his way out.”
Brinkley stated that the nation is in an “Age of Biden.” However, he mentioned that it may be difficult for Biden’s time in office to continue given his current standing.
The Oct. 12 event was moderated by Chapman professors Lori Cox Han (left) and Luke Nichter (right).
“His polling is not good,” Brinkley said. “You don’t want to be running for re-election at, and I might be generous saying (almost a) 40% approval (rate), when there’s not a lot of voter enthusiasm.”
According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rate currently sits at 39.4%, while his disapproval rate is at 54%.
While Biden is expected to hold the Democratic spot on the ballot, former President Donald Trump seems to be the Republican choice, Brinkley believes.
But, it’s important to note the controversies that have surrounded Trump both during and after his presidency.
“(Trump) has all these indictments and legal issues going on. So, it’s hard to tell what happens with Biden’s legacy,” Brinkley explained. “In presidential histories, getting re-elected matters. So, if you have a two-term Biden, it will look different than a one-term.”
With Biden’s popularity rates falling and the nation facing an array of troubling situations, from an ousted speaker to inflation, Brinkley thinks that the American people are at a crossroads. One candidate has multiple active legal cases against him, while another has not satisfied the American citizens in his time so far.
“It’s going to be another one of these, I believe, very close elections,” Brinkley continued. “Biden very well may win the popular vote again, but he could lose the electoral college. It’s going to be a nail-biter.”
“It’s going to be another one of these, I believe, very close elections. Biden very well may win the popular vote again, but he could lose the electoral college. It’s going to be a nail-biter.”
Brinkley even went so far as to predict that the 2024 election will look like a “Trump-Biden rematch.”
“I never would’ve thought Trump survived Jan. 6. I thought that was sort of the end of his political career…” Brinkley said. “It seemed to be that this was the end of Donald Trump, so I am a bit surprised that he’s been able to rehabilitate a lot of himself even while all these legal cases are reigning down on him, indictments are reigning down on him.”
Brinkley noted both the controversies of Trump and the arguments against Biden. He mentioned Biden’s decreasing health, Vice President Kamala Harris being seen as an albatross who could possibly cause Biden to lose votes, America’s concerns with the way Biden has handled the Ukraine conflicts and the Hunter Biden scandals.
With all of this controversy staining the legacy of Biden’s term, Brinkley thinks that he may be unable to secure a re-election.
“We really are in a hell of a mess right now,” he said.
Brinkley also suggested that Biden might have a bit of an “ego.” He claimed that while the president has people who advise him, he doesn’t have anyone who would be willing to tell him to remove himself from candidacy for the good of the nation.
“It’s always a problem with presidents,” Brinkley said. “By nature, you want ‘yes’ people around you, you don’t want people who are willing to challenge you.”
“It’s always a problem with presidents. By nature, you want ‘yes’ people around you, you don’t want people who are willing to challenge you.”
Biden and Trump weren’t the only possible candidates that Brinkley discussed. He cited Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently created some noise by announcing his intention to run as an Independent in the upcoming election rather than a Democrat.
With Kennedy Jr. running Independent, the election process could be drastically affected. Brinkley warned about the possibility of Kennedy Jr. running against Biden and how this could take lots of votes away from the current president.
“I think you do have to keep an eye on (Kennedy Jr.) running Independent, not that he’s gonna win, but he very easily can get 5% (of the vote) about everywhere,” Brinkley said. “He could flip a state and may even get up to 10% in the national election.”
“I think you do have to keep an eye on (Kennedy Jr.) running Independent, not that he’s gonna win, but he very easily can get 5% (of the vote) about everywhere. He could flip a state and may even get up to 10% in the national election.”
Brinkley thinks that the current state of the nation leaves citizens unsure of what the future holds. But, he believes that things will look up with time.
“It’s a crowded agenda, but we have to keep plucking away at it, and hopefully better times will be coming,” he said.