Senate elections ‘too close to call’ as both parties strive for control
The current Republican majority in the Senate will be contested in the 35 upcoming Senate elections, giving the Democratic Party a chance to gain control of Congress. WikiCommons
As the upcoming Nov. 3 election approaches, there is uncertainty over which political party will gain control of the 35 open U.S. Senate seats, including special elections in Arizona and Georgia up for grabs in this race.
There are currently 53 Republicans and 45 Democrats in the Senate, and 23 of the seats that are up for election in November are under Republican control. The Democratic Party will need to win at least three GOP-held seats in order to secure a majority in the Senate.
Yusuf Baqai, president of Chapman Democrats and a junior political science major, is doubtful that the Democrats can flip the Senate.
“I definitely think that this 2020 race is going to be a very difficult one to win for the Democratic Party,” he said. “Because of President Trump’s recent controversies that he’s had in his past and present, it’s hopefully going to be more than enough to push more of the Republican seats to the Democrats.”
President of Chapman Republicans Justin Buckner, a junior broadcast journalism and documentary student, declined to comment.
As this Senate election takes place concurrently with the presidential election, there is a question of whether one may influence the outcome of the other. The “coattail effect” is a well-documented political phenomenon wherein the political party that wins the presidential election influences Congressional elections. The Republican majority in the Senate in the 2016 election is attributed to this effect.
John Compton, the chair of Chapman’s political science department, believes the coattail effect will have a less significant impact on the coming election than in previous years.
“Most people expect the presidential race to be fairly close, which means we won’t see as many coattails as we have in the past,” Compton said.
Baqai, however, believes that the results of the presidential election could be instrumental to the Democrats flipping the Senate.
“If Joe Biden won, it would be a very good push for flipping the Senate,” he said.
According to data from 270toWin, a nonpartisan website projecting the 2020 election forecast, Arizona is leaning toward a Democratic victory over the Republican incumbent Martha McSally, and Alabama projects a Republican victory over its Democratic incumbent Doug Jones. North Carolina, Montana, Maine, Iowa, Georgia and Colorado are all projected as too close to call, but Compton believes Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine are likely to flip.
“The Republicans are defending an awful lot more seats than Democrats, so it looks like they’re probably likely to lose seats,” Compton said.
As for the seats considered to be toss-ups, Baqai believes Democratic victories depend on how well the party can appeal to its audiences in those states.
“Especially in places like Alabama, they should be appealing a lot more to the base of who the audience is,” Baqai said. “With Colorado, I feel like it’s just destined to flip.”
According to 2018 data from the Pew Research Center, during the midterm elections, voters’ concern in both parties for control in Congress was higher than in previous such elections, with 73% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans focused on winning a majority in Congress.
With this increased emphasis on partisan victory in Congress, Compton believes the Senate no longer acts as a check on the presidency as it was intended to in the Constitution.
“It’s political parties that drive the decision of lawmakers more so than institutional considerations about their branch of government, so the idea that the Senate can serve as a check on the presidency looks less and less plausible,” Compton said. “Voters have good reason to be as concerned about Congress as the presidency.”