‘Things are not as they used to be’: The story of rising heat in Southern California
With some nighttime temperatures staying above 80 F and wildfires still raging across the Orange region, forcing evacuations and endangering lives, this summer has been marked by record-breaking heat. Climate change experts at Chapman University have a clear message for those who endured it: get used to it.
Chapman University professor of earth observations and remote sensing at the Schmid College of Science and Technology, Hesham El-Askary, says the September heat wave we experienced in Southern California and temperatures around the globe are warming drastically under the blanket of climate change.
“We are witnessing here in California and other parts of the world a global shift in the temperature and in the season's behavior. It is not the way it was before,” said El-Askary. “A place like California, where it should be experiencing a little bit of a breeze here and a little bit of cooler weather. It’s the opposite. You are observing big fires and even bigger heat waves.”
According to data from the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, extreme heat has become more frequent in California since the 1950s. Across many regions in California, the number and magnitude of extreme heat events have significantly increased and become more frequent in the past decade.
The heat surge hit Orange County in early September, contributing to the Airport Fire, which ravaged hillsides near communities close to Chapman University, like Orange and Riverside. The dry conditions, ideal for fueling wildfires, have only worsened the situation.
“You have dryness and dryness and dryness,” explained El-Askary. “You have a lot of vegetation cover which is quite dry. You have a massive amount of shrubs and leaves which are very very dry. This is a very favorable condition for any wildfire to happen.”
What is the cause of this temperature rise? Greenhouse gasses. Around the world, we continue to burn fossil fuels like oil, coal, and wood to generate energy. This burning releases gasses that collect in the atmosphere, increasing the concentration of greenhouse gasses. The more these gasses build up, the more heat gets trapped, leading to global warming and widespread climate change.
“What's happening right now is that we can see that all the forces or all the factors which are adding to the (Earth’s warming and cooling system) are increasing our global temperature [and] are happening at a higher pace.” said El-Askary. “And this is exactly what we are witnessing here in California and other parts of the world. In some parts of the world, at a global level, you would be seeing disappearances of seasons. Things are not as it used to be.”
As our climate changes, various aspects of our planet — including oceans, land, vegetation, and biodiversity — are impacted. To observe how these systems interact with each other and respond to climate change, scientists rely on data from satellites.
“Remote sensing technologies allow us to observe the Earth at different parts of the spectrum that humans are not able to,” said El-Askary. “So we can see the heat exchange process between land, ocean and atmosphere. We can see (abnormal) behavior of heat outbreaks. So we utilize Earth observations, tools and modeling techniques in order to study or to learn from our past and to validate with our present so that we can project our future.”
Current earth observations project that Orange County will experience an increase in hot days, with 22 days exceeding 90 F over the next 30 years. Over the past century, Southern California has already warmed by approximately 5 F.
“On the fact that global climate change is real. We are observing it. We are living it. We are anticipating even more scenarios in the future,” said El-Askary.
As the intense summer heat gives way to cooler fall temperatures, it's more important than ever to reflect. Take note of the feeling of fall, the amount of rainfall, the amount of snow cover on the San Gabriel mountains as we transition into winter. These small observations contribute to a larger picture, reminding us that we are part of a global community affected by a warming planet.