Opinion | An Oscar ballot breakdown
Assistant Features and Entertainment Editor Nicholas De Lucca breaks down 10 categories off of the 95th Academy Awards ballot prior to the ceremony on March 12. Graphic by SUKHMAN SAHOTA, art director
Nicholas De Lucca, assistant features and entertainment editor
As the 95th Academy Awards roll around on Sunday, March 12, it’s time to fill out your Oscar ballots and predict who takes home the gold. Based on precursor awards such as The Golden Globes, The Critics Choice Awards and The BAFTAs, some categories seem to be locked in, while others remain an open race.
I’ve chosen to break down 10 categories off the ballot, examining which films and performances I think will win, which should win and which should have been on the ballot.
Best Cinematography
What will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
What should win: “Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
What should have been nominated: “Nope”
Breakdown: The way in which James Friend envelopes the audience in visceral scenes of World War I is sure to play off the Academy Awards’ longstanding history of honoring war films in “All Quiet on the Western Front.” However, Darius Khondji’s work in “Bardo” was the best aspect of the film which was on full display during the Latin dance club scene. Khondji managed to turn every miniscule scene into a spectacle, but, with notable snubs such as “Nope,” “The Batman” and “Babylon,” I don’t believe the category fully represents the best cinematography of the year.
Best Animated Feature
What will win: “Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”
What should win: “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
What should have been nominated: “Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood”
Breakdown: There’s no denying Mark Gustafson’s stop-motion expertise rejuvenates the overly-adapted folktale of Pinocchio but the “Puss in Boots” sequel is too much fun. With such drastic stakes, complex themes and adult humor, this is DreamWorks animation at its finest. Accompanying the story is great voice-work by a stacked ensemble headed by Antonio Banderas and a 2D comic book style reminiscent of “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.” Funny enough, “Puss in Boots” even takes a sly shot at “Pinocchio” mid-movie. Though all the nominees were great films this year, Richard Linklater’s Apollo 10 ½ captures late ‘60s zeitgeist through childlike wonder and stellar animation and deserves a nomination on the ballot.
Best Original Screenplay
What will win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
What should win: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
What should have been nominated: “Broker”
Breakdown: It’s hard to argue against a movie where the line “in another life, I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you,” instantly brings about tears. Hence, I see “Everything Everywhere All At Once” taking this category. I could listen to Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson banter about niceness and donkeys over several “Banshees of Inisherin” films but “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is just as capable of balancing heartbreak and humor. It’ll be a close race between the directors who chose to write their own scripts — further bleakening the career outlooks of screenwriting majors like myself. “Broker” is another film from 2022 that perfectly balanced heartbreak and humor through memorable characters and an engaging plot but didn’t receive the recognition it deserved.
Best Adapted Screenplay
What will win: “Women Talking”
What should win: “Women Talking”
What should have been nominated: “White Noise”
Breakdown: One might be hesitant to turn on a 100-minute film with expectations of an ensemble simply talking, no matter how talented that ensemble may be, but writer and director Sara Polley manages to make 100 minutes fly by with excellent pacing and intriguing dialogue. With heavy momentum off of a win at The BAFTAs, I can see “All Quiet on the Western Front'' snatching this category, but “Women Talking” is my pick for best adapted screenplay. Although many faithful Don DeLillo readers took fault with Noah Baumbach’s adaptation of “White Noise,” I was never bored by the offbeat comedy, technicolor style and critiques on consumerism.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Ke Huy Quan for “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Who should win: Ke Huy Quan for “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Who should have been nominated: Paul Dano for “The Fabelmans”
Breakdown: Tasked with playing a meek husband, a badass martial artist, a suave movie star and so much more, Ke Huy Quan gave everything he had in his return to acting. He’s a scene-stealing presence with an undeniable charm. I think the support for “The Banshees of Inisherin” stars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan is stronger than many realize but the devotees will split each other’s votes, leaving a clear path to gold for Quan. While his co-star Judd Hirsch was awarded a nomination for only eight minutes of screen-time, I believe it was Paul Dano who deserved the nomination from “The Fabelmans.” Though not as flashy as Hirsch, I found his performance as the emotional anchor to be far more effective.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Angela Bassett for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Who should win: Kerry Condon for “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Who should have been nominated: Dolly De Leon in “Triangle of Sadness”
Breakdown: I firmly believe Dolly De Leon would have won the category if nominated, but alas, she was snubbed. Angela Bassett’s emotional gravitas in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” makes a strong case to win the category, especially considering how the film leans on her in the absence of the late star Chadwick Boseman. However, I preferred Kerry Condon, the earnest, quietly tortured sister to Colin Farrell who holds “The Banshees of Inisherin” together, teetering between quiet, deliberative nuance and frustrated outbursts.
Best Director
Who will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Who should win: Steven Spielberg for “The Fabelmans”
Who should have been nominated: Charlotte Wells for “Aftersun”
Breakdown: I found Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical film to be incredibly charming and a beautiful, but honest reflection on his early years. His long-standing history with the academy keeps him close in the race and you can tell he wants the win based on his out-of-character campaigning but the love for the film seems to have lost steam. As “Everything Everywhere All At Once” continues to dominate the precursors award, I see a best directing win for The Daniels who masterfully navigated such a complex universe with ease. Charlotte Wells, in her directorial debut “Aftersun,” deserved a spot on the ballot for her quiet, enigmatic film that speaks volumes without saying much.
Best Actor
Who will win: Brendan Fraser for “The Whale”
Who should: Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Who should have been nominated: Alexander Skarsgård for “The Northman”
Breakdown: Between the heartwarming comeback and his deep commitment to playing Charlie in “The Whale,” the beloved actor will soon be referred to as Academy Award Winner Brendan Fraser. I can see a path where voters who believe in honoring an unawarded, longtime actor split their votes between Fraser and Colin Farrell and Austin Butler emerges victorious but that is a longshot. At this point, nobody can stop The Brenaissance. While all the nominees deliver emotional performances, I would have loved to see a nomination for Alexander Skarsgård from “The Northman,” for his physical transformation and thunderous performance in the Viking epic.
Best Actress
Who will win: Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Who should win: Cate Blanchett for “Tár”
Who should have been nominated: Viola Davis for “The Woman King”
Breakdown: This one might be the closest race out of all the categories. While I believe Cate Blanchett delivered the best performance of the year as Lydia Tár, I think she might have hurt her chances by calling the awards season a “televised horse race” during her Critics Choice Awards acceptance speech. Yeoh’s amazing performance aside, I believe that after years of not recognizing diverse performances, the academy will try to make up for their past injustices and pat themselves on the back by recognizing Michelle Yeoh as the first Asian best actress winner. When the nominees were released on Jan. 24, the biggest outcry was over Viola Davis’ snub for “The Woman King,” which was shocking considering the academy chose a performance from a movie that made $30 thousand at the box office in “To Leslie” over the four-time nominee’s lucrative, action-packed, warrior drama.
Best Picture
What will win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
What should win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
What should have nominated: “Babylon”
Breakdown: While “Babylon” might be a bloated mess, I can’t help but admire Damien Chazelle for putting all of his cards on the table. It certainly has its faults, but the filmmaking sequences are up there with the best 2022 film moments. My love for “All Quiet on the Western Front” is a reflection of my happiness to be back in movie theaters, appreciating a spectacle the way it's supposed to be seen along with my love for war films. However, with a wide release on Netflix, many audience members were only able to bear witness on a small screen. Edward Berger’s anti-war film was my personal favorite of the year but I like to think I’m self aware enough to recognize that the general consensus does not align with mine. “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is on too hot of a winning streak not to win. It has reached mainstream popularity, but its indie qualities still have many feeling like they’re rooting for an underdog. The story has resonated with young filmgoers more than any movie this year, however, I’m curious to see how such an out-of-the-ordinary film plays with the predominantly older Academy members. While it may not have been my favorite, I think it would be awesome to see such a strange genre film take home the biggest honor.
