March Madness brackets: what are the chances?

Filling out a perfect bracket can be near impossible, because there are so many unforeseen circumstances to account for when predicting winning teams. JAKE NEEDHAM, Staff Photographer

One in 9 quintillion. Those are the chances for a perfect March Madness bracket. But with some basic basketball knowledge, you can increase your odds to one in 120.2 billion. Good luck with that.

Many people take on these odds anyway because there’s a great payout in achieving the seemingly improbable. Every year, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett offers $1 billion dollars to any individual who picks out a perfect bracket. This money is out of reach when comparing it to the one in 292 million odds of winning the Powerball lottery.

The prize still remains, but the chances of obtaining it are low. So what makes filling out a perfect bracket difficult?

Forward Anthony Smith, senior strategic and corporate communication major, said he started filling out March Madness brackets back in high school with his friends, and when it comes to strategy, a big part of it is recognizing that upsets are bound to happen.

“At the end of the day, a lot of the underdogs are going to win; I feel like teams have to get lucky in March,” Smith said. “When it comes to seeds one through four in the first round, I always take one through four (in their matchups), but then once you get to the five through eight seeds, and they’re playing teams that are likewise in talent level and skill level, then I start picking a couple upsets here and there.”

There are 64 teams that compete in the tournaments and 63 matchups to correctly predict. For sophomore accounting major Hayden Mimaki, this makes filling out the brackets seem like too daunting of a task.

“It just feels like (you) need a lot of background knowledge, like knowing the capabilities of each team: offense, defense, players, injuries,” Mimaki said. “Now I would have to acquire all this information for all 64 teams, levy and measure all those factors, and then pick who would win in each situation. (It) just seems like … something that (wouldn’t) be easy.”   

The “underdog mentality” is one of the factors that lead to unexpected outcomes. In 2018, the No. 16 seed University of Maryland, Baltimore County Retrievers defeated the No. 1 seed University of Virginia Cavaliers 74-54 — the first team to do so in NCAA history. 

“(Underdogs) have nothing to lose because some of them are content with making it, and they’re like ‘OK, we made it this far, that’s already impressive enough,’” Smith said. “Whereas when you’re the higher seed, just making it isn’t enough. I feel like the underdogs just play more loose with a lot less pressure.”

Senior psychology major and guard Jack Roggin pointed out that mid-major teams, or Division I teams that are outside of the Power Five conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC), don’t get as much recognition. This shapes the mindset of player performance on the court.

“(Mid-major teams are) also (Division) I players; it’s not like they’re any scrubs,” Roggin said. “You can win a game off emotion. So if the underdog is always more fired up and not as complacent and cocky I think that’s what (affects the outcome).”

Improbable last second baskets to close out the game can also add to the complexity of completing a perfect bracket. In last year’s tournament, the No. 1 seed Gonzaga University Bulldogs’ point guard Jalen Suggs knocked down a half court basket to defeat the No. 11 seed University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Bruins 93-90 in overtime.

Roggin said that persistence from both teams in these matchups and having the games come down to the last possession sets up these games for remarkable endings. 

“There’s just that extra grit not to give up and so that’s why I think we see more of these miracles and these unbelievable plays because it’s win or go home and a lot of these guys (are) like ‘this is it, this is the biggest stage of our (careers),” Roggin said.

Ultimately, March Madness encompasses more than filling out a perfect bracket; this tournament can be a path toward greater career opportunities for the players who compete.

Roggin himself recently competed in the NCAA Men’s Division III Basketball Championship and spoke on the importance of exposure and what an appearance in the tournament does for himself and the community.

“We didn’t realize how much of a magnitude making the tournament had on other people just like fans or faculty at the school,” Roggin said. “The exposure was unbelievable, even at the Division III level, even in Texas (when we played Mary Hardin-Baylor) … It was a cool feeling to see that people in a different state know about you, so the tournament is huge for everyone.”